A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
